“CONVENTIONAL” WISDOM: THE CRYSTAL BALL FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THIS NOVEMBER’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION… AND WHY!
By Louis Manzo / August 5, 2016
BLOG FORECASTS CONTINUE REDHOT!!!!
The blog is on fire! Dating back to the 2014 midterm elections, the blog has been astonishingly accurate in predicting election results and explaining to its readers “why”. The blog has already successfully forecast the GOP Primary right down to the final combatants. We then told you that Donald Trump would prevail and explained why.
Today’s blog will tell you what the November Presidential election results will bring.
The blog had also predicted that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democrat nominee on the ballot in November. On that count, the blog was wrong…so far. The reasoning: after reviewing the law and circumstances regarding Clinton’s server and e-mail scandal while she was heading up the State Department, it was felt that she would be indicted. The majority of lawyers and former prosecutors appearing on left and right leaning media talk shows agreed.
Apparently, FBI Director James Comey felt evidence of “intent” was needed to prosecute a statute that did not require it. Comey actually created additional elements for prosecuting the crime, that were not established by Congress for the law, in order to give himself cover. Who could account for what actually went on during the days between Comey’s bizarre statement, and the impromptu meeting between Comey’s boss and former President Bill Clinton on an airport tarmac, in the middle of nowhere. Something that none of us would be aware of to this day, had not a local news crew stumbled onto the stealth participants.
Was the fix in? Those of you who read about politicized prosecutions and DOJ corruption in Ruthless Ambition know that the answer to the question is a resounding, “YES!” Democrat and Republican elite are above the law. Let me cite a passage from Chapter Ten of the book:
“…The prosecutors working for United States Attorney’s Offices throughout the country believe they are untouchable. They are gifted public officials who are blessed to be able to walk between raindrops. Holding themselves to be above the laws they apply to everyone else is an inherent hypocrisy. They are the incarnation of the platitude “absolute power corrupts absolutely.” To some, the law and the administration of justice was never a vocation—it was merely an instrument for advancing their careers and sometimes serving a political agenda at the same time.”
Nonetheless, Comey has left the DEM’S with a seriously wounded candidate.
Why GOP and DEM INSIDERS Hate Trump
The power struggle still going on between some establishment Republicans and Donald Trump is all about the establishment’s fear of losing control of the party and, thus, losing patronage, contracts, and input on policy that nets them substantial sums of money. Trump owes this cabal nothing! He has insulted these powerbrokers in the worst way imaginable to them—he refused to take their money! They could not get their hooks into him.
Prior to Trump blowing the establishment out of the water, the ruling junta in the GOP were the Bush family and their many associates. An entourage consisting of the likes of Karl Rove and others. Ironically, the Bush wing likes to cast themselves as pure conservatives, despite the line that sunk that notion: “Read my lips, no new taxes.” This same group led the country into a costly and disastrous war with Iraq, and then, along with the Democrat party establishment, blew up the Middle East and pissed away trillions of our taxpayer dollars.
The goal of many in the GOP establishment remains to see Trump defeated, and for them to then retake the party, along with its spoils, beginning with the 2018 midterm election cycle. They will plot against Trump right up until election day. Some will even publicly support Clinton.
In the meantime, these powerbrokers and lobbyists will try to eek by, subsisting on the crumbs that the DEM establishment will throw their way. As stated before, the elite establishment types of both national political parties never lose—the election results only temper to what degree they win.
It’s humorous to watch some of the elite insiders throw bouquets at Hillary Clinton as they bash Trump, all the while hiding from the American people the real financial interest they have in the election.
For example, former NYC Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, has businesses all over the world, in other countries. He is a globalist. Bloomberg is against Trump’s policy of punishing companies for fleeing the United States and offering incentive to companies that stay here and create jobs. Bloomberg is not prone to moving his companies into this country.
Warren Buffet is opposed to Trump’s support for the Keystone pipeline—he makes millions through railroad transportation. Soon to be former, NYC Police Commissioner, Bill Bratton, wasted no time in bashing Trump after announcing his future employment with Teneo, a global consulting firm with deep Clinton connections.
The arrogance of the insiders of both political parties, in ignoring the problems of the American people, are responsible for the mass appeal of both Sanders and Trump’s nationalist, outsider campaigns. The DEM’S and GOP apparatchik have no clue to the depth and breadth of the pain that they are responsible for inflicting upon the country and the American people. The special interests prosper while the American people suffer.
Both parties have supported international trade deals like NAFTA and the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement that already resulted, and will result, in scuttling thousands upon thousands of American jobs. These trade pacts have provided the cover for companies and industries to flee the United States in order to operate in countries with cheaper labor costs and less government regulations.
Both parties have also failed to reign in massive illegal immigration—something that polling indicates is of massive concern to the American electorate. The GOP caters to the National Chamber of Commerce which favors lax immigration to support their clientele’s need for cheap labor. The DEM’S support lax immigration because they see a population of immigrants, in need of government resources, as way to build another voting base.
Both parties have also whet the appetite of neocons and the DC military industrial lobby by pursuing a foreign policy for the past 16 years that has proven to be costlier than ever before in American history, but has left us less secure. President George W. Bush planted the dynamite for disaster in the Middle East through the war in Iraq [which Hillary Clinton supported as well].
Obama and Clinton then blew up that dynamite by concocting the worst foreign policy strategy ever implemented in this Nation’s history: Syria, Benghazi, the Arab spring, facilitating the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the fall of Libya, the Treaty with Iran, a more threatening North Korea, the ceding of Crimea to Russia, dissing Israel, and China expanding its influence and military bases in the South China Sea.
Both parties have enabled the Affordable Care Act—-strangling the budgets of American families and killing jobs—-to be enacted, and then failed to repeal it. This is despite the 2014 midterm election mandate to do so by the American people. The Republican majorities in the House and Senate gave lip service to the American people while feigning opposition to the law.
Both parties have failed to grasp the true pain that the lackluster economy has inflicted upon the American people—stagnant wage increases for American workers for the past 8 years, and 98 million Americans out of work.
For these ills, the American people squarely place the blame at the foot of DEM and GOP party insiders, which again explains the appeal of Trump and Sanders.
The DEM Disaster
The majority of American voters feel that Hillary Clinton should have been charged with a crime and got off because of who she was. Her latest scandal, exposed on the eve of DEM convention, proves that the DNC was greasing the skids for Clinton’s nomination and the defeat of Bernie Sanders. This will further drive the country’s distrust of Clinton. The DNC had its thumb on the scale and Bernie Sanders never had a chance.
The electorate’s distrust of Clinton will ratchet up again when Clinton is confronted with the results of the inquiry regarding her lying to Congress during the Benghazi hearings—-more fallout associated with her e-mail and computer server scandal. It may also reach a fatal crescendo should the claims of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange—-that there are other e-mails inferring that Clinton lied again and broke the law—-prove to be true when they are released. This time, documenting that Clinton covertly helped to arm ISIS troops fighting in Syria—through Libya—while she was Secretary of State. Another of her lies to Congress. This news is something that esteemed author and head of the Justice Integrity Project, Andrew Kreig, has been reporting on since 2013.
The fallout from this will be irrevocable. The only chance the DEM’S will have at this point is to convince Clinton to resign her candidacy and allow the party to nominate someone else.
The DEM’S have saddled up with their most establishment candidate at a time that the country is looking skeptically at the political insiders of both parties. Ironically, the DEM’S have, so far, nominated the only candidate that Trump could defeat.
Forecasting & Media Misinformation
You might have recognized that the many talking heads in the partisan media are at it again—misreading polling and allowing their bias to influence their judgment. If you don’t think the media is jaded, just take a gander at NBC’s Lester Holt challenging GOP nominee Donald Trump about assertions that Trump is making from a story that Holt was actually the source of—I rest my case.
The latest sure thing to take down Trump, that is now being spun by the media, is the controversy surrounding the attack on Trump by two Gold Star parents of a Muslim American patriot, who lost his life in the Iraq war that President George W. Bush had initiated and Senator Hillary Clinton supported.
The parents seemed to have arrived at the Democrat Convention in the same convenient manner that Bill Clinton wound-up in Attorney General Loretta Lynch’s plane, days before the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton. [There are some nefarious facts not being reported by a slanted media concerning these Gold Star parents and their attack on Trump…more on this in my next blog: The Wrath of “Con.”]
There exists today, as dramatic and obvious a slant in newspaper and blog journalism, along with accompanying editorial commentary—-the same as exists in television and web journalism. The once free press is now engaged in trying to shape the minds of their readers, in order to favor the candidate that their publisher’s support.
Jaded journalists sometimes use a candidate’s campaign constructed stories that are actually made-up—-the intent is to simply spit out the political spin being put out by the campaign of the media entity’s candidate of choice. For example, when the DEM’S labeled Trump’s convention speech as “dark,” their media mouthpieces echoed that spin ad-nauseam. They couldn’t use the word “dark” enough, once that DEM operatives launched the theme of their counterattack.
I have watched some of the most distinguished journalists, in my state and nationally, cash in their credibility by the evident parroting of political campaign talking points. These once outstanding writers don’t even see how far they have fallen and how they lost all credibility by employing such transparent dishonest journalism antics.
The DEM’S treat their media minions as useful idiots for advancing campaign agendas. Obama employed the same tactic with national security fabulist Ben Rhodes, who ran circles around the same idiots when helping to sell Obama’s Iran strategy , and then bragged about how he had used these journalists—right to their faces. Many Americans have seen right through this bias, which is why Trump has survived the media attacks to date.
The media loves to portray Trump as a bigot, homophobe, xenophobe. etc.—-all at the behest of DEM politicians who took Trump’s money and welcomed his support when he was a Democrat. Have any of these pols given back a cent of the money they raked in from this alleged social pariah?
A look at Trump’s family, his business accomplishments, and the testimony of neutral affiliates who know him, casts serious doubt on this purposeful assault by Trump’s political enemies and biased media. Most reasonable Americans can see right through this media hype.
And, while we’re on the subject, the favorability of the media and press is also at an all-time low. The American people remain extremely skeptical of the institution and have as much distaste for it as they do for DC politicians. That is why when the media piles on Trump it has helped his candidacy rather than hurting it.
The media pompom girls and boys who told you that Trump would never win the nomination because his support had a ceiling, or that Sanders would not make it to the end of the primary calendar, were all dead wrong. The networks have even now resorted to limiting the number of Republican respondents in their polling results—-some as dramatically inaccurate as below 25%—-in order to frame the election in terms of what they want to happen rather than what could.
Reuter’s resorted to back-rigging polling data in order to support a false narrative that Clinton was ahead in their polling. Something which even drew the wrath of esteemed DEM pollster, Pat Caddell. Remember, a pollster can make a poll say what he wants it to say by manipulating the composition of the respondents. Don’t trust polling from biased media sources.
The other glaring mistake being made by the pompom commentators is relying on the old electoral maps from past presidential election contests. Throw them away—we are watching an entirely new electoral map evolve right before our eyes. The established conventional methodology for evaluating past campaigns will not work for the once-in-a-lifetime dynamics of this election.
Of course, expect the continued stories that attack Trump’s character to ramp up. The press will purposefully distort events and facts to suite their narrative that Trump is a monster—-remember how the media beat the drum on Mitt Romney for strapping his dog to the roof of his car. The media will then await their cue from the Clinton campaign, and soon resort to questioning Trump’s sanity—-they did the same thing to John McCain.
My forecasting this election relies on polling data that is more foretelling than the horserace and head-to-head results, which are often, as Pat Caddell pointed out, skewed to serve agendas. For example, notice how Trump consistently had primary election results that were significantly higher than what polling had indicated. People are telling pollsters they are not voting for Trump or are undecided, but then they actually vote for him; or the responses given to pollsters are being suppressed by the pollsters in order to achieve a preconceived result [see the previous Pat Caddell link in this article].
There is also another category of voter that Trump is reaching but is not being polled—-disengaged American’s who are so fed-up with today’s politics that they gave up on voting, but who have now reengaged, touched by Trump’s populist message. This will become one of the biggest post-election stories reported on in November! Remember that you heard about it here, first.
I have been astonishingly successful in reading the polling tealeaves by zeroing in on the most telling data in the body of polling results—issue and direction questions—along with current events. I will do so again for my predictions for November.
First, I note that during the past primary season, GOP turnout was up, while DEM turnout was down. In many States where cross party balloting was permitted, droves of DEM voters renounced their party affiliation in order to vote for Trump. This seems to be of little concern to the DNC—they’ve ignored it. These defections of DEM’S are one of the most alarming bellwethers for what is happening to the electorate in America. Another portent is the sparse crowds showing up to Clinton campaign events—-like during her recent post-convention bus tour—-compared to the turn away crowds continuing to show up at Trump venues.
Other of the more important polling data for me is that while nearly each different polling outfit differs significantly on the horserace question, they are all in concurrence that an average of 70% [+ or -] of the electorate feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Next, more than 50% of polling respondents feel Clinton got away with a crime, and more than 65% believe she is inherently dishonest—that latter number is staggering, and it explains why her only chance to win is by destroying Donald Trump’s character. If these three polling queries remain above the 50 percentile, no matter whatever else happens, Clinton cannot win the election.
Clinton inherits the mantel of incumbency by defending the record of President Obama [wrong direction]. Her campaign knows exactly what its confidential internal polling data is telling them—the same thing I just told you. Along with the fallout from the DNC/Sanders e-mail leak, future e-mail leaks, and her potential perjury before Congress, the destiny of her campaign is doomed.
Clinton’s only shot to move votes is to destroy Trump’s character in the eyes of the electorate. This explains the major media attacks against Trump that were previously discussed, and why the strategy of Clinton and the media is to intensify them. While this plays out, Clinton needs to stay out of sight and mind—her polling numbers seem to drop with the more public exposure on the stump that she has.
Next, polling has consistently demonstrated that the political persuasion of the country is slightly more right of center and conservative than it is left of center, or liberal. The DEM’S are too far left to win the support of moderate DEM’S and independents. In fact, the far left extremists of the party, about 20% of all DEM’S, are driving the country’s and President Obama’s agenda. American’s don’t like it—-the 70% of those polled who see it as “the wrong direction.”
As long as more terror attacks erupt throughout the world, the DEM’S will suffer at the polls—they are considered weak in combating terror. Whenever Trump is shouted down by protesters, and when they burn American flags, the incidents only serve to pump up support and polling numbers for Trump. His Nationalist message is in line with the vast majority of the American electorate at this time in our Nation’s history.
Incidentally, reading in-depth polling responses, particularly concerning National security and immigration issues, demonstrates substantial support from the electorate for Trump’s immigration stand. This is especially prevalent among those who consider themselves as undecided voters right now. This only bodes well for Trump when this crucial group make up their minds about for whom they will vote.
As a lifelong Democrat, I have also resorted to personally sampling some of my old political associates from Hudson County—-one of the Nation’s staunchest Democrat bastions. These are true Party insiders with a keen sense for the pulse of the electorate. The news in not good for Clinton from these staunch DEM’S. They are seriously upset with their party’s direction and Clinton’s candidacy.
Specifically, the party catering to its extreme, at times fanatical, far left wing is driving other core groups of DEM’S, and other moderates, out of the party. It was pointed out how, that with the state of the economy in disarray and in the threat of terrorism ratcheting up, the DEM’S seemed more concerned in policing transgender bathroom polices for the Nation.
As one frustrated DEM election worker told me, “I tell my daughter’s dates to make sure that she’s home by ten-thirty. Then the Democrats lead a fight to make sure that boys can shower with girls at her high school. What’s wrong with our Party? …If I dare speak up, someone calls me a racist, or brands me with some other label, and then tells me to shut up!” This sampling of opinion reinforces just how fed up Americans are with political correctness being forced upon them, and the insanity of those caught up in this PC madness.
Sadly, for the Democrat Party, this outraged father isn’t alone, nor is he in the minority of thinking in the country. A majority of American’s reject political correctness, viewing it as now too extreme. The more that Trump continues to reject political correctness, the more undecided voters he will persuade to his side.
The DEM’S are about to be on the wrong side of a semi-landslide to landslide election this November, both up and down the ballot. Trump’s election will establish a new electoral map, and a completely revamped GOP—-infused with more moderate DEM’S than staunch conservatives. The GOP will begin to plant roots in rustbelt states.
Clinton has the bigger burden for moving undecided and independent voters to her side. In this election, Clinton represents the status-quo for voters, Trump represents change. Overcoming the three polling queries we discussed before—-wrong direction, voter perception that Clinton got away with a crime, and voter perception that Clinton is dishonest—-is a tall order, even against as flawed a candidate like Trump.
In addition, Bernie Sanders supporters [the never Hillary crowd] who defect to Green Party Candidate, Jill Stein, will also significantly hurt Clinton—especially in tightly contested swing states. Clinton will be the most damaged by the other party candidacies on the ballot. Remember this factor!
As other intangibles that drive polling numbers evolve between now and election day—terror attacks, civil unrest, and the release of more damaging Clinton e-mails—the number of votes that Clinton has available to move to her side will become as scarce as American flags and patriotic bunting on the opening night of the recent DEM convention.
The good news for DEM’s is that after this beating at the polls, the party will undergo a major revision. More sensible and moderate-to-left leaning DEM’S will recapture the Party back from the extreme crazies. The Party will rebuild more in line with positions of the American electorate and make itself viable again.