OF EMAILS, SMALL HANDS, AND BROKERED CONVENTIONS
Louis Manzo March 8, 2016
If you’ve been following my blogs for the past year, then you have noticed the uncanny and scarily accurate forecasting that I’ve been making relative to current events and national elections. [Short recap: successful predictions of the 2014 national midterm and statewide elections, the slow and steady demise of the Democrat Party, accurate prophesy to date of the current Dem and GOP presidential primaries, the failure of Jeb Bush, and the resignation of John Boehner.]
My ideology and political philosophy do not factor into my predictions. [I am a lifelong Democrat.] Though many of you may choose to kill the messenger, my only motive is to continue keeping the readers of this blog the best informed.
My forecasting is based upon an assortment of national polling data that tests the temperature and the mood of the American electorate, as well as policies and happenings impacting current events in the country. I rarely rely on horserace polling between candidates—it is becoming more and more unreliable in today’s politics, though favorability ratings of political personalities do factor in.
Thus far, the GOP debates have had all the dignity of a Monday Night Raw wrestling match. The only thing that seems to be missing from the GOP forums are whip cream pies.
I continue to maintain that Donald Trump, most likely, or Ted Cruz, will be the GOP nominee—sans any hanky-panky [trying to rig a brokered convention] being advocated by former 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney and the GOP establishment. I maintain that Hillary Clinton, even if she prevails in securing enough delegates for the Democrat nomination, WILL NOT BE the party nominee, but neither will Bernie Sanders. Stay tuned.
National polling data continues to maintain that Americans are fed-up with DC politicians, angry about conditions in the country, and disgusted with the lobbyists and powerbrokers who have corrupted our democracy through the influence of money in politics. Trump and Sanders, from different ends of the political spectrum, have been the most successful in harboring the anger of the electorate—both railing against money and party insiders corrupting politics.
[Important to note: don’t look at the ideological spectrum as a straight line with Trump and Sanders at opposite ends, but rather a circle with both of their ideologies aligning close together at the top of the circle—one in the left hemisphere the other in the right. Take the “Isidewith.com” survey to better see what I mean.]
Who are these party insiders? They are the people who are satisfied with the status quo and never lose an election, no matter which party nominee wins. Ideally, they wanted a Jeb Bush versus Hillary Clinton general election. Ahhh…the good old days! Money keeps the party establishment relevant, and through their lobbyist they spread that relevance and money across both sides of the political aisle. They profit from the policies of the politicians they finance, which then inflict legislative misery on, we, the common folk.
Ergo, the explanation for why nothing has ever been done about outsourcing and open borders, along with trade bills that run deficits for American trade and cause companies to flee—the industries and companies of the donor class depend upon cheap labor to turn larger profits. These multi-millionaire and billionaire insiders are threatened by a rising middleclass dependent upon fair and rising wages, which is why they have advocated policies that continue to result in the demise of the middleclass.
They are the people who have created and caused the housing mortgage crisis that took down banks and tanked the economy in 2008. They are also part of the military industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned about, who through their political prowess continue to drag us into military skirmishes and wars—the reason why the Middle East is now a powder keg.
The attacks upon the two most anti-political establishment candidates—that Trump is not a conservative and that Sanders is a socialist—will not work. They are both, in their own ways, running populist and nationalist campaigns with powerful messages that the American people are responding to—namely, pledging to destroy the political establishments of both parties, and restoring power to the people. Americans overwhelmingly believe the cause of their angst are the powerbrokers buying politicians who continue to lie to them.
Incidentally, any media attacks against any of the anti-establishment candidates will, likewise, not work. Second only to politicians for drawing the disfavor of the American electorate is the media. They are considered untrustworthy, biased, and agenda driven.
The greatest proof of the profound anti-establishment sentiment was borne out by the demise of Marco Rubio, who destroyed his campaign by becoming the new GOP establishment candidate once Jeb Bush was run out of town, and then proceeded to attack the two outsider candidates railing against the establishment [Trump and Cruz]. The only thing keeping Clinton on top in the Democrat Party is her connection to Blacks, who feel estranged from Bernie Sanders. If Sanders ever made the connection to Black voters, Clinton would be toast.
The Democrat Party remains too far left-of-center from where the American people are, right now, ideologically. The DEMS are hemorrhaging blue-collar and moderate members of their Party every day. It is a growing trend. Look at the record breaking turnouts in GOP primaries and increasing party conversions, compared to the underperforming Democrat turnouts in the primaries. Now you’ll understand why the Dems will be taking a major shellacking at the polls come November…unless of course Mitt Romney and other establishment Republicans can throw their Democratic counterparts a lifeline by shafting their own primary voters at a brokered convention.
A closer look…
Now that Marco Rubio got the kiss of death from the GOP establishment, the obvious party nominee will either be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. If, after Marco Rubio gets crushed in Florida, either Cruz or Trump then sign on to be the next establishment candidate, they will lose, and lose big [see the remains of the Rubio campaign!]. If Trump maintains his anti-establishment posture and wins Florida or Ohio, he will win the nomination with the necessary amount of delegates.
If both Trump and Cruz both remain anti-establishment, Trump’s message and campaign will triumph—a populist insurgency will best an ideological insurgency in the current political climate.
Mitt Romney’s pathetic plea for voters to sandbag their own party frontrunner, based upon a litany of insincere excuses, is nothing more than a temper tantrum. Other GOP establishment pols who joined the conga line to bailout on Trump are likewise hypocritical. Film clips of Romney and other malcontents lavishing praise on Trump in 2012 were played on news shows carrying their recent Trump condemnations. The attack on Trump is being driven by his refusal to take establishment money and play ball. Unless these establishment bloodsuckers have a stake in a candidate with their money, then they remain as uncomfortable as vampires at dawn.
Romney, along with others, by encouraging a strategy that leads to a brokered convention, is the closest thing to fascism that American politics has ever seen. Romney, better known as “Mittens” to his establishment buddies, actually advocated disenfranchising the millions of voters who turned out in record numbers in the GOP primaries—by having the elite establishment powerbrokers amend the convention rules and pick a nominee of their own liking.
Looking as if he were a candidate himself while making his announcement—-makeup and teleprompter in tow—-the only thing Romney was missing was a sticker on his forehead reading “pick me!” Apparently, disenfranchising voters runs in Romney’s DNA, Romney’s father, George, took umbrage with Ronald Reagan’s “A time for choosing” pronouncement in 1964, and then led a walkout of convention delegates after Barry Goldwater was chosen as the GOP nominee. It destroyed Goldwater’s campaign.
Most likely, Romney and his co-conspirators would opt to replace any of the current candidates now seeking the nomination with himself or Speaker Paul Ryan—Romney’s Veep running mate in 2012. Romney and company should see how well this similar strategy worked out for Democrats in 1968, when after Robert Kennedy was assassinated and Gene McCarthy hadn’t secured enough delegates for nomination, President Johnson disregarded primary voters opposed to his war in Vietnam by inserting his Veep, Hubert Humphrey, into the mix, and then had the party establishment pick him as the nominee at the convention. Tear gas, anyone?
In the end, the GOP establishment will prefer even Clinton to Trump—some have already publically said so.
Despite her inevitability to prevail as the Dem nominee—the super delegate process of the Dem’s convention rules allow for party bosses in each state to select delegates to do their bidding. In other words, even if a state’s popular vote favored a particular candidate, the super delegates would not have to honor the edict of voters in the state, and could then cast their convention vote and support for another candidate.
Clinton is expecting Attorney General Loretta Lynch to decide not to prosecute her, should the FBI recommend that charges be filed against her for mishandling classified and top-secret information while serving as Secretary of State. Remember Bill Clinton’s golf round with President Obama last fall? They weren’t exactly exchanging golf tips throughout the game.
Should Lynch decide not to prosecute, even if the FBI sees a crime, all hell will break loose. The American people will not stand for it. Clinton losing the general election amidst such scandal would be a fait accompli. The Democrat Party establishment, along with President Obama, would demand her resignation as a candidate. Sanders will be bypassed for either Vice President Biden or Senator Warren. Obama will broker the deal.
Again, expect outrage, especially being expressed by the thousands of college students supporting Sanders’ campaign.
Happy primary season. You are watching one of the most historic course of political events to ever transpire in our country.