Chris Christie Scandals Blog

****DEBATE BULLETIN**** Impossible for Hillary to Win Debates

 

[by Louis Manzo / September 26, 2016]

     Hillary Clinton might be the only person who could make Ken Kesey’s character from One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, “Nurse Ratched,” appear to be lovable by comparison. Clinton’s political health is currently on par with her physical health—-not too good! Now, herself and her own campaign, assisted by a fanatically devout and delusional mainstream news media, have made it impossible for Clinton to win the first, and perhaps any, presidential debates.

     As I had stated in my previous blog that predicted the course of the Presidential campaign and election, as long as the three key polling factors remained above the 50% threshold—-American’s who feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction, that Clinton is dishonest, and that Clinton’s email fiasco alibi is untruthful—-then Hillary Clinton could not win the election. Clinton’s strategy to deal with this was to demonize Trump and his supporters through the use of campaign advertisements, speeches, and her mainstream media foils.

     All Trump has to do is to appear opposite of how Clinton and the media have portrayed him and he will walk away the debate winner. Millions of undecided voters, paying attention to the election for the first time, will see an affable Donald Trump, and not the monster that Clinton and the media have portrayed him to be. This is the exact same scenario that paralleled the 1980 presidential campaign between Ronald Reagan and President Jimmy Carter. The media of that time portrayed Reagan as a fool and bumbler, he was anything but in his television debate appearances. Read more →

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“CONVENTIONAL” WISDOM: THE CRYSTAL BALL FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THIS NOVEMBER’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION… AND WHY!

By Louis Manzo / August 5, 2016

BLOG FORECASTS CONTINUE REDHOT!!!!

     The blog is on fire! Dating back to the 2014 midterm elections, the blog has been astonishingly accurate in predicting election results and explaining to its readers “why”. The blog has already successfully forecast the GOP Primary right down to the final combatants. We then told you that Donald Trump would prevail and explained why.

     Today’s blog will tell you what the November Presidential election results will bring.

     The blog had also predicted that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democrat nominee on the ballot in November. On that count, the blog was wrong…so far. The reasoning: after reviewing the law and circumstances regarding Clinton’s server and e-mail scandal while she was heading up the State Department, it was felt that she would be indicted. The majority of lawyers and former prosecutors appearing on left and right leaning media talk shows agreed.

     Apparently, FBI Director James Comey felt evidence of “intent” was needed to prosecute a statute that did not require it. Comey actually created additional elements for prosecuting the crime, that were not established by Congress for the law, in order to give himself cover. Who could account for what actually went on during the days between Comey’s bizarre statement, and the impromptu meeting between Comey’s boss and former President Bill Clinton on an airport tarmac, in the middle of nowhere. Something that none of us would be aware of to this day, had not a local news crew stumbled onto the stealth participants.

     Was the fix in? Those of you who read about politicized prosecutions and DOJ corruption in Ruthless Ambition know that the answer to the question is a resounding, “YES!” Democrat and Republican elite are above the law. Let me cite a passage from Chapter Ten of the book: Read more →

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THE 2016 GOP PRIMARY SAGA: The End of the Line

By Louis Manzo / April 14, 2016

     Since the Wisconsin primary, the GOP establishment [party officials, insiders, lobbyist, financers and their PACS, and operatives] have been fast afoot in their 100-day mission to destroy Donald Trump’s campaign for the GOP nomination. Judging from the primary results in Wisconsin and the results of the Colorado caucus, that plan is working.

     The strategy was most likely put together by political architects such as Karl Rove and other party players—mostly, former supporters of the Bush political family. Their own guy, Jeb, went down faster than a box of donuts at a Weight Watcher’s meeting. They next shifted their support to Marco Rubio, whose candidacy lasted about as long as a toupee in a hurricane. Now they’ve saddled up with Ted Cruz…not to win [they can’t stand him either], but, instead, to take delegates away from Trump—in order to deny him the nomination.

     The establishment and donor class of both the GOP and Democrat Party’s really never lose. Through the power of money, they are able to maintain power no matter who is in office. They especially thrive in a situation where one party controls the White House and the other the Congress—such as now. Lobbyists flourish in this type of climate.

    The establishment can’t trust Trump because he hasn’t taken their money and is therefore not obligated to them. That makes Trump a danger to them. And, yes, they would even feel more comfortable with Hillary Clinton as President. At least they can still do business.

    So how will all this end?

     First, understand this, none of what you have heard about the GOP Convention Rules, other than the magic delegate number of 1237 needed to nominate, will apply to this year’s convention. The rules for this year’s convention will be written by a yet to be named committee just prior to the convention. The establishment typically controls the goings on of this crucial committee, which will determine the rules and qualifications for the nomination on the first and subsequent ballots of the convention.

     Cruz and Kasich have no chance of securing the nomination on the first ballot at this point; and as long as they don’t unbind their delegates, they can possibly prevent Trump from reaching the magic 1237 number.

     Here’s the math:

     Trump currently has 755 delegates—482 delegates shy of the nomination. Next up is Wyoming [29 delegates]. The Wyoming precinct caucused on March 1st but did not bind all of their delegates. The delegate selection process will culminate at the state convention on April 14-16. Delegates from Wyoming can be bound or unbound.

     Trump has very little opportunity of winning a majority of delegates in Wyoming for the same reason that he got blown away in Colorado—he has a lousy political field campaign organization, and because this type of delegate selection process has been purposefully designed by the party bosses to benefit the party bosses. Look for Cruz, [who, as we noted several blogs ago, has the best field operation in the game] with the assistance of the establishment, to triumph in Wyoming.

     Incidentally, Pennsylvania holds a primary but still unbinds 54 of their 71 delegates. Here, Trump can and should win the popular vote, but he can then witness the party establishment, which controls the delegate selection process, still deny him a majority of the delegates to be awarded.

     It should be noted that Trump has just hired a seasoned political mastermind for the delegation process, Paul Manafort. Manafort has already caught the establishment inserting Trojan Horse delegates as representatives for the delegate seats already won by Trump—-meaning that these individuals will only vote for Trump on the first ballot and then vote as they are told to do in subsequent ballots. Manafort is what Trump’s campaign needed from the get-go. Even though it’s late in the game, Manafort will at least stop the hemorrhaging and exorcise some of the Trojan delegates.

     Excluding Wyoming and Pennsylvania, there are 159 delegates available in “the primary winner takes all of the delegates” states [Delaware 16, Nebraska 36, Montana 27, New Jersey 51, and South Dakota 29], and there are 539 delegates available in states that proportion the allotment of delegates based on primary voting [New York 95, Connecticut 28, Maryland 38, Rhode Island 19, Indiana 57, Nebraska 36, West Virginia 34, Oregon 28, Washington 44, New Mexico 24, and California 172].

     When the dust clears, the assessment here is that Trump will be about 50 votes shy of the magic 1237 number. If Trump can maintain his huge lead in New York and pickup 85 or 90 delegates, then he has an opportunity to cut the 50 delegate deficit down to 30. Trump’s team might also be able to pressure Pennsylvania to commit additional delegates to his side because of the primary vote. Any additional campaign gaffes between now and the last primary date will only hurt Trump in reaching his goal.

     This still leaves approximately 80 unbound delegates up for grabs. If Trump and his team are worth their salt, and can employ the “Art of the Deal,” they are in the hunt. Additionally, if former candidates, Rubio and Carson, unbind their delegates before the convention’s first ballot, then they put into play an additional combined 179 delegates from which Trump has an opportunity to persuade and move over to his side in order to put him over the top.

      Trump will most likely reach out to Rubio and offer him the vice presidency. If that fails, he will make a pass at Kasich before the first ballot. Kasich definitely controls the delegates in his home state of Ohio.

     Kasich’s problem is that he honestly believes that he has a shot at winning the nomination in subsequent balloting. Not a chance! The establishment would hand the nomination over to someone new [Romney, Bush, or Ryan] before opting to go for Kasich. Another real disaster scenario.

     It is very doubtful that, given the Cruz field team’s organizing skills and the establishment’s advantage, Trump could win the nomination in subsequent floor votes, once the delegates are unbound after the initial floor vote. In this scenario, Cruz would win, but there will be tremendous fallout. Under this situation, Trump will have entered the convention with 2 million popular votes more than his nearest opponents, along with the most delegates, but not the majority of delegates.

      The average GOP voter will not understand the party rules, nor care to listen to excuses about why the leading vote getter and delegate collector—in an, at one time, more than ten-person candidate field—was denied the nomination. The average GOP voter will feel that Trump was screwed by their enemy as well—the GOP establishment. The party would implode!

     Incidentally, there is a trap that’s been laid here for Cruz. If, before the primaries, Cruz attempts to argue that this process is rational, he will draw the wrath of voters who don’t understand process but know fairness. He will pay a heavy price in these future primary states to the benefit of Trump. That is because, like him or not, American Republicans will believe, and overwhelmingly support, the case that Trump is making: he should be the nominee because he got the most votes. The easiest argument for John Q. Public to understand!

      The prediction here is that Trump prevails by a whisker…or even less.

 

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OF EMAILS, SMALL HANDS, AND BROKERED CONVENTIONS

     Louis Manzo March 8, 2016

     If you’ve been following my blogs for the past year, then you have noticed the uncanny and scarily accurate forecasting that I’ve been making relative to current events and national elections. [Short recap: successful predictions of the 2014 national midterm and statewide elections, the slow and steady demise of the Democrat Party, accurate prophesy to date of the current Dem and GOP presidential primaries, the failure of Jeb Bush, and the resignation of John Boehner.]

     My ideology and political philosophy do not factor into my predictions. [I am a lifelong Democrat.] Though many of you may choose to kill the messenger, my only motive is to continue keeping the readers of this blog the best informed.

     My forecasting is based upon an assortment of national polling data that tests the temperature and the mood of the American electorate, as well as policies and happenings impacting current events in the country. I rarely rely on horserace polling between candidates—it is becoming more and more unreliable in today’s politics, though favorability ratings of political personalities do factor in.

    Thus far, the GOP debates have had all the dignity of a Monday Night Raw wrestling match. The only thing that seems to be missing from the GOP forums are whip cream pies. Read more →

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2015 ELECTIONS: GOP & DEM PARTY BELTWAY INSIDERS REMAIN OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE COUNTRY—American People Attracted to Outsider Candidates

 

By Louis Manzo / November 10, 2015

     More Americans pulled levers for non-incumbent candidates with little political office experience in the recent November elections. Most of those candidates were Republicans, and most were either center or right of center in political ideology.

     DEM’S lost the Sheriff’s seat in the liberal bastion of San Francisco, where even progressives sent their party a message about “sanctuary city” policies. In Kentucky, the DEM’S lost 4 of 5 statewide constitutional offices, including the governorship for only the second time in 48 years. The DEM’S took surprising losses in Virginia as well.

    This continues a trend that was forecast in this blog just before the November 2014 elections. More than two-thirds of the legislative houses of the States in this country are now held by Republican, as are 33 Governor’s seats. Read more →

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RUSSIA MAKES READY TO TAKEOUT ISIS: Putin to Be Lauded on World Stage by American Allies Who Were Snubbed by Obama

By Louis Manzo / September 24, 2015

     In the weeks prior to his planned address to the United Nations’ General Assembly later this month, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has moved Russian military personnel and armament into Syria, despite concerns expressed by US President Barack Obama. Putin’s intentions are to prop up Russian ally and Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad. Putin’s cover story will be that Russia will be conducting a major assault against ISIS by leading and establishing a coalition to do so.

   With US allies such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia in angst over the United States’ failure to assert leadership in confronting the ISIS terror campaign, these countries are likely to encourage the Russian initiative. US allies in Europe, trying to cope with an overwhelming number of Syrian refugees fleeing into their countries, will also likely welcome the Russian action.

     Look for the Russian strategy to be unveiled during Putin’s address to the United Nations in late September. Read more →

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CHRISTIE CAMPAIGN ON LIFESUPPORT AS ENTIRE GOP FIELD GETS TRUMPED

By Louis Manzo / August 18, 2015

     New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s, so far, short-lived campaign for the GOP presidential nomination is nearing its end. Basically, like others of his fellow GOP contenders, he has been Trumped. All of the so-called campaign professionals, advising their particular clients amongst the huge field of candidates seeking the GOP nomination, have totally misread the American people, as have their counterparts advising Hillary Clinton.

   The American people, as the 2014 election cycle indicated and polling confirmed, are fed up with the conditions in their country and the out-of-touch Washington pols [both Democrat and Republican] whose polices have taken a wrecking ball to America. The American people have been fed doctored numbers on the health of the nation’s economy and the largesse of other out-of-work Americans who are purposefully not counted in unemployment statistics in order to paint a picture of a rosy economy and robust job growth.

     The American people have also consistently expressed their angst with a flawed immigration policy that the money barons and lobbyist who fund both parties seem to prefer— amnesty, cheap labor, and open borders. Read more →

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CHRISTIE PRESIDENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENT A PRELUDE TO JULY 4th FIREWORKS

By Louis Manzo / June 25, 2015

     In all likelihood, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will make known his intention to seek the GOP’s nomination for President of the United States in the days leading up to July 4th.

     It would be optimum timing for such an announcement. Given the furious pace of candidates [13 as of this writing] who have made known their intentions to compete in the Republican field. The days preceding and over a holiday weekend are typically slow news cycles and it would give such an announcement a greater shot at grabbing and maintaining a presence in news headlines before, during, and after the holiday break.

     Such a timeline [as I had predicted during the course of numerous radio, TV, and web interviews the past year regarding my book, Ruthless Ambition], would fit Christie’s style of attempting to mimic his hero of convenience, Ronald Reagan. To borrow from former Democratic Vice-presidential nominee, Lloyd Bentsen: Trust me, Chris Christie is no Ronald Reagan! Read more →

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CHRISTIE PUTS A TIGER IN HIS TANK

By Louis Manzo / March 13, 2015

    The latest Chris Christie caper centers on the Christie Administration’s just announced settlement agreement with ExxonMobil, amounting to $225M, for an environmental damages lawsuit initiated under the administration of former NJ Governor James McGreevey. The lawsuit went after the corporate giant for pollution damages resulting from their refinery operations in Union County and elsewhere in New Jersey. Anyone who has traveled the New Jersey Turnpike in the vicinity of Exit 13 and whiffed the putrid rotten egg smell there will catch the drift of the lawsuit right away.

    The original lawsuit brought by the State sought $8.9B for damages and another $2.6B in remediation costs. After years of legal battling, the State’s legal team won significant court victories establishing ExxonMobil’s guilt. The company was on the ropes. Apparently, that wasn’t good enough for the Christie Administration. Enter the Governor’s Chief Counsel, Christopher Porrino—a genuine legal eagle…with an apparent broken wing and dry beak—who inserted himself in the process and meddled with the successful legal team. Read more →

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OREGON GOVERNOR LACKED THE RESUME OF A FORMER UNITED STATES ATTORNEY: A TALE OF TWO GOVERNORS

By Louis Manzo / February 16, 2015

     This past week, serious New Jersey journalists and other media sleuths—at least those with an attention span greater than the mayfly’s lifecycle—may have been scratching their heads when the news broke that the just resigned Oregon Governor, John Kitzhaber, was under Federal investigation.

     Kitzhaber is in meltdown mode over a deepening influence-peddling scandal surrounding his fiancée, Cylvia Hayes. Allegedly, Hayes pocketed $118,000 in previously undisclosed consulting fees in 2011 and 2012 from the Washington-based Clean Economy Development Center while also advising the governor on energy policy. The consulting fees were never revealed in annual disclosure filings. Kitzhaber is insisting that there is no conflict of interest. The United States Attorney for the District of Oregon, S. Amanda Marshall, has subpoenaed extensive personal and government documents and is now investigating. Read more →

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